This year Colombia elects the President of the Republic for the next presidential term, which begins on August 7th. The first round of the presidential elections was held on May 29th, and due to the fact that no one candidate received 50% +1 of the votes, the two candidates with the highest number of votes advanced to a second round, to be held on June 19th.
Prior to the first round of voting, several polls published surveys indicating that the leader of the ‘Historical Pact’ party, Gustavo Petro, was the favourite with over 40% of voter intention, in line with data from the last few months. The progressive was followed by the conservative candidate, Federico ‘Fico’ Gutiérrez, who was identified as the other candidate to go through to the second round.
But the election results threw up a surprise, with Rodolfo Hernandez advancing to the second round alongside Gustavo Petro. According to earlier polls, Hernandez’ public popularity had risen but had not overtaken that of Federico Gutierrez.
We can interpret these election results as a reflection of the discontent among the Colombian population with the political parties that have governed the country for over a decade. The most voted-for candidate is a leftist, and the second most popular candidate is a non-traditional right-wing candidate, independent of traditional parties and electoral machinations.
They also reflect the polarisation of the Colombian electorate, as the centre loses more and more followers and sympathisers. Social discontent has resulted from inequality and poverty; and from incessant demands to reduce insecurity, corruption and rural violence that is increasingly waged by armed dissident groups.
Gustavo Petro, the progressive candidate, leads the polls in voting intention. It is the first time in Colombia‘s democratic history that a leftist candidate has a real chance of winning the presidential elections. Among his most loyal electorate are those who demand a radical change regarding the political and socioeconomic situation which the country is going through, aggravated by the pandemic and an upsurge of violence in some regions, among them the country’s youngest electorate.
Petro, a 62-year-old senator, was mayor of Bogotá between 2012 and 2015. In the 1980s he fought the state in the ranks of the M-19, a guerrilla group that surrendered its weapons in 1990. This is the third time he is running for the presidency of the country. In the 2018 elections, he lost in the second round to the current president, the conservative Iván Duque.
Rodolfo Hernández, 77 years old, is an engineer and businessman, as well as former councilman of Piedecuesta, in the department of Santander, and mayor of the city of Bucaramanga. With a penchant for controversial statements, Hernández is also known for physically assaulting one of the councilmen of Bucaramanga while he was head of the city council.
The 2022 elections are taking place in a relatively complex environment, due to a social outburst that has been ongoing since 2019 and an economic crisis brought on by the pandemic which the current government has been unable to overcome.
As a result, the 2022 elections are charged with an atmosphere of uncertainty and polarisation. Some factions of the electorate want a ruler who represents change. On the other hand, there are those who want to elect a right-wing candidate because they fear the economic and social consequences of someone from the left reaching the presidential Casa de Nariño.
Added to this is a growing lack of faith in the system, and a persistent narrative that the system will not allow a representative from the left to take the presidency. This is due to the fact that the initial results in the elections for the Congress of the Republic were inaccurate, and did not reflect the total number of votes cast for the Historical Pact.
Following the first round of the election, Federico Gutierrez, the third most voted-for candidate, declared his support for Rodolfo Hernández ahead of the second round. Although there are still many alliances to be built, and despite Colombia’s narrow political spectrum, Hernandez’ positioning has made room for a populist right wing, and a restructuring of the country’s political map.
Political parties are currently in internal discussions to determine who to support for the second round of the Presidential elections although, in keeping with this polarised society, some visible faces of Colombian politics have already pledged their support, regardless of what their parties decide.
Candidates have just over two weeks in which to win followers. Rodolfo Hernández has more to gain than his opponent, while the biggest challenge for Gustavo Petro will be to retain the 8 million votes plus which he won on March 29th.
